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‘Overcapacity’ claim groundless as China’s green tech fuels global growth: Tian Xuan_我的网站

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    Tian Xuan Photo: Courtesy of Tian
In economic theory, "overcapacity" - for which no universally accepted definition exists - is inherently a recurring feature of the market economy's dynamic "balance - imbalance - rebalance" cycle. The Western narrative that equates China's sizable production capacity directly with "overcapacity" defies economic logic and rigor; in reality, it represents a politicization of trade and economic issues.
First, it confuses the concepts of "capacity scale" and "overcapacity." China's overall industrial capacity utilization remains within a reasonable range. Periodically lower utilization in traditional sectors reflects a normal adjustment as these industries advance toward high-end, intelligent, and green production. Ample capacity in certain emerging industries is precisely what meets surging global demand for high-end, smart, and green solutions. Therefore, equating scale with excess is typical equivocation.
Second, "overcapacity" itself is a dynamic feature of market economies, where no fixed balance persists indefinitely. Judging capacity based solely on static snapshots violates basic economic principles.
Third, it is erroneous to simplistically link trade surpluses or industrial subsidies to overcapacity, while ignoring the macro context of global specialization and cross-border savings-investment structures. It also disregards the reality that reasonable capacity utilization ranges differ across economies at varying stages of development. Imposing a single standard on China is neither scientific nor rigorous.
China's global competitiveness in green technology stems from sustained, large-scale investment in innovation, a comprehensive industrial and supply chain system, massive application scenarios, and intense market competition - not from alleged government subsidies. After decades of long-cycle R&D, Chinese industries have achieved breakthroughs in core technologies such as power batteries and photovoltaic modules.
During the 14th Five-Year Plan period (2021-25), China's nationwide R&D spending grew at an average annual rate of 10 percent. Economies of scale have continuously diluted production costs. China's ultra-large domestic market and full-chain supporting ecosystem provide an optimal testing ground for new technologies - from pilot verification to mass deployment. With more than 200 million market entities driving fierce competition, enterprises are constantly compelled to cut costs, raise efficiency, and upgrade products, thereby forging dual advantages in price and performance that we see today.
There is no direct causation between subsidies and overcapacity. Industrial subsidies are a globally recognized practice, typically aimed at correcting market failures and advancing critical technologies. China's subsidies are granted on an impartial basis to all types of market entities, in full compliance with WTO rules, and have not triggered disorderly capacity expansion.
Currently, capacity utilization in China's green industries remains within a reasonable range. Support is primarily directed toward R&D, technological breakthroughs, and consumer-side incentives through market-based mechanisms - not toward fueling overcapacity. Crucially, China's high-quality capacity has reduced the global cost of green transition, representing an opportunity rather than a shock to world development.
Against the backdrop of global carbon neutrality goals, labeling China's new energy capacity as "overcapacity" is entirely untenable. According to the International Energy Agency, global data center electricity consumption will approach 1 trillion kWh by 2030, with 40 percent of incremental power needing to come from renewables. Demand for wind power, photovoltaics, power batteries, and related green energy solutions remains far from saturated - so claims of "overcapacity" are groundless.
China's capacity plays a central role in advancing the global energy transition. Over the past decade, the levelized cost of electricity from wind and solar globally has fallen by more than 60 percent and 80 percent respectively - improvements largely attributable to Chinese innovation and manufacturing, which have directly lowered the cost threshold for worldwide green transformation.
The US journal Science crowned the global renewable energy surge led by China among its Top 10 Breakthroughs of 2025. Leveraging its technological and scale advantages, China is well positioned to supply abundant, high-quality green energy equipment and solutions, meet fast-growing renewable demand from data centers, industrial production, and other sectors, and tangibly support countries in implementing the Paris Agreement. In short, China is a pivotal force driving the global low-carbon transition.
The so-called "China Shock 2.0" is fundamentally a protectionist narrative rooted in Cold War thinking - a politically motivated claim inconsistent with facts. The rapid development of China's modern industries is driven by innovation and sustained institutional reform, not by dumping allegedly excess capacity abroad. Rather than posing a shock, China's industrial progress offers a "China Opportunity 2.0." It delivers multiple dividends to global development - innovation dividends, market dividends, and growth dividends - while injecting stability and vitality into global industrial chains through an open and win-win approach.
China's high-quality green and high-tech exports have tangibly accelerated the global green transition and reduced production costs worldwide. Meanwhile, as the world's largest goods consumption market and the second-largest importer for 17 consecutive years, China provides enormous market opportunities for economies around the globe. Moreover, China's open-source collaboration and technology sharing in frontier fields such as artificial intelligence and the digital economy enable developing countries to bridge the digital divide at lower cost and share in the benefits of the technological revolution.
The facts demonstrate that China's emerging technologies and products represent a "China Opportunity 2.0" - driving global technological progress, accelerating the green transition, improving livelihoods across nations, and bolstering the industrialization of developing economies. This open and mutually beneficial cooperation stands as the true engine of global economic recovery and sustainable development. 
This article is compiled based on an interview with Tian Xuan, dean at the Guanghua School of Management and Boya Distinguished Professor of Finance of Peking University. [email protected]

。    夏日炎炎，涉水徒步、溪流穿越等户外活动热度高涨，EVA溯溪鞋凭借独特优势，成为众多年轻消费者追捧的户外装备。为回应消费热点、引导理性选购，杭州市消费者权益保护委员会（以下简称“杭州市消保委”）联合必维申美商品检测（上海）有限公司，开展了EVA溯溪鞋比较试验。本次比较试验采用“问卷调查、客观测试、消费者体验”三位一体联动模式，以普通消费者的身份，从线下实体店及各大电商平台共购买了27款样品，包括运动品牌、快时尚品牌、户外品牌及电商平台中销量较高的品牌等，样品单价从9元到303.99元不等。购买渠道包括杭州实体商场和主流，其中电商平台覆盖天猫、京东、唯品会、得物、抖音等平台。本次比较试验27款样品的特性项目指标总体呈现中等水平，在轻便性、耐摩擦色牢度、鞋底硬度等方面表现良好，但部分样品在防滑、耐磨、压缩变形等耐用性指标上仍有提升空间，部分样品的标识存在信息缺失或不规范的情况，有待进一步规范。防滑性能测试结果显示，前掌防滑性能略优于后跟，但差距不大；干态优于湿态，湿态防滑性能相比干态平均下降22.6%；大部分样品干态防滑性能良好，能满足日常干燥路面使用；湿态防滑平均值为0.494，能满足日常溯溪场景需求。

B | 耐磨性能直接影响溯溪鞋的使用寿命。数值越低耐磨性能越强。

C | 测试结果显示，27款样品不同品牌之间差异较为明显。结果显示，27款样品均在三星及以上，其中16款样品达到四星及以上，标称品牌分别为：MERRELL迈乐、SENMA森马、安踏、乔丹、CROCS、XTEP特步、回力、朴西、红豆、TZLDN/利达妮、SKECHERS斯凯奇、海澜之家HLA、DECATHLON、匹克、HUMTTO悍途、MINISO。链接：杭州市消保委发布消费提醒按需选型，聚焦实用性能选购EVA溯溪鞋时，应结合日常休闲玩水、专业溯溪、短途徒步等实际场景，明确自身需求。重点检查鞋头防撞、脚踝支撑、防滑大底、排水结构等核心配置，确保鞋子具备实用性能。

D | 同时，根据自身脚型挑选合脚款式，避免磨脚、易进砂石等常见问题，切勿盲目跟风网红款式，确保选购的溯溪鞋既实用又舒适。理性甄别宣传，规避营销陷阱面对商家宣传，需保持理性，客观看待产品内容。仔细查看鞋材用料、性能参数等相关说明，警惕夸大防滑、耐磨、速干等功能的不实宣传。必要时，可参考实际评测、官方选购指南等权威信息，辅助决策，避免陷入营销陷阱，切实维护自身消费权益。（通讯员 杭小消 记者 汪晓筠）。

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